I was interested to read this after the build up, but then so disappointed with the platitudes.
Where is the response to the coming food shortages next Autumn when the crops come in 30% below normal? Where does Britain import 60% of its food from, when other countries are stopping exports because they need it for their own populations?
And where will Britain import diesel from, when America stops selling diesel for export as it runs short too? So how will farmers harvest without enough diesel? Or process and dry crops without gas?
No serious questions, no deeper analysis. It did exactly what Britain always tries to do - "Don't worry, we'll muddle through somehow!"
This whole article is based on a false assumption; that federal government will continue. As an alternative, consider for a moment that shit rolls downhill. So does power. As the federal government falls apart, as is happening in the UK right now, more and more power will flow downhill to local council governments and to local groups that can see it and act on it. What the active preparedness community needs to do is develop ways to access the power that comes their way AND even to seize power when they can. Bromides like this article aren't worth much. To be blunt and coarse about it, "Good Apocalypse my ass! It will not be fun at all. Better get used to ameliorating suffering through wise intervention."
Panic doesn't queue up behind logistics. That's the timing problem in Mann's cascade. He sequences it supply → economic → social, as if each waits for the previous to land. But in 2020 toilet paper vanished from shelves weeks before any supply chain had actually broken.
I'd put maybe 40% odds the social instability he loses sleep over arrives ahead of the physical shortage that's supposed to trigger it.
Though I’m less sanguine. Not least because this conversation simply doesn’t include the looming thing I’m getting very worried about: the biggest super El Niño EVER.
Well, he does and he doesn’t. He says “If we get an El Niño weather pattern..”. We are definitely going to get one. The live question is only: will it be a Super El Niño. Indeed: will it be the biggest ever, as sone models are now strongly predicting.
I was interested to read this after the build up, but then so disappointed with the platitudes.
Where is the response to the coming food shortages next Autumn when the crops come in 30% below normal? Where does Britain import 60% of its food from, when other countries are stopping exports because they need it for their own populations?
And where will Britain import diesel from, when America stops selling diesel for export as it runs short too? So how will farmers harvest without enough diesel? Or process and dry crops without gas?
No serious questions, no deeper analysis. It did exactly what Britain always tries to do - "Don't worry, we'll muddle through somehow!"
This whole article is based on a false assumption; that federal government will continue. As an alternative, consider for a moment that shit rolls downhill. So does power. As the federal government falls apart, as is happening in the UK right now, more and more power will flow downhill to local council governments and to local groups that can see it and act on it. What the active preparedness community needs to do is develop ways to access the power that comes their way AND even to seize power when they can. Bromides like this article aren't worth much. To be blunt and coarse about it, "Good Apocalypse my ass! It will not be fun at all. Better get used to ameliorating suffering through wise intervention."
Panic doesn't queue up behind logistics. That's the timing problem in Mann's cascade. He sequences it supply → economic → social, as if each waits for the previous to land. But in 2020 toilet paper vanished from shelves weeks before any supply chain had actually broken.
I'd put maybe 40% odds the social instability he loses sleep over arrives ahead of the physical shortage that's supposed to trigger it.
Yes, so important! https://foodlands.substack.com/p/the-iran-war-food-shock-is-coming
This is good; TY, both
.
Though I’m less sanguine. Not least because this conversation simply doesn’t include the looming thing I’m getting very worried about: the biggest super El Niño EVER.
Thanks Rupert! In fairness to Bruce he does actually mention it.
Well, he does and he doesn’t. He says “If we get an El Niño weather pattern..”. We are definitely going to get one. The live question is only: will it be a Super El Niño. Indeed: will it be the biggest ever, as sone models are now strongly predicting.